Kurtis Rourke’s injury status making his availability on the air puts this game in flux. However, even if Rourke does fit, the market we are looking at will be the Over/Under instead of the spread. See where we land in our betting picks below.
It’s the last MACtion week of the season in which Ohio tries to wrap up a MAC championship game appearance with a win over Bowling Green.
A win will secure a division title for the Bobcats as they look to cap off their regular season with nine wins. However, their biggest question mark is the availability of starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke after sitting out last week’s game against Ball State with a knee injury.
Bowling Green has been hot, winning three of their last four, and enters this one after a crazy comeback win against Toledo. A Falcons win here would set up a wild play-off scenario with seemingly limitless possibilities.
Will Ohio close the deal and secure a spot in the MAC championship? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Ohio vs. Bowling green.
Bowling Green vs Ohio best odds
Bowling Green vs Ohio picks and predictions
The story of this game is all about whether Rourke will see the field. Because of some well-provided information and eyes that have seen the injury occur, he’ll roll the dice and say he doesn’t. With that in mind, the easy decision becomes the Unders for our best bet.
When Rourke left last week’s game, Ohio immediately went for some conservative playcalls. Sure, things like tempo, tempo, and scoring played a part, but attempting just eight passes in a half is still relatively rare for the Bobcats. With CJ Harris in center, Ohio started the second half with three consecutive punts, managing just three completions in the process.
Bowling Green has started this season slowly, but its defense has improved as the season continues. Three of the last four games have seen opposing quarterbacks held under 250 passing yards, with two of those under 200. At times, the Falcons have also been ballhawked, entering this game with the second-most interceptions in the conference.
Harris threw 12 passes in his college career and is coming off an injury. Whether it’s rust or just plain inexperience, you have to think he’d be a likely candidate to be subject to turnovers if he tries his luck in the air.
Even if Rourke ends up being a surprise start, the Under side is the right side. While Bowling Green’s pass defense has improved, his rushing defense has remained mostly the same. He ranks ninth in the MAC in rushing yards allowed for carry. He boasts an anemic stuff rate of 14%, which makes you think if Ohio gets a comfortable lead, they’ll succeed by burning the clock to the ground. What has been key to Ohio’s success this season is an average of 3.4 line yards per game. It should be able to push this Bowling Green line, which will provide a significant advantage in ball travel.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t claim Ohio’s defense was a true world champion, but just like their opponent, they’ve improved dramatically. He’s getting an offense that isn’t overly prolific and doesn’t make many explosive plays that will lead to quick scoring. The Eagles have only eight shows in the season of over 40 or more. You’re asking the Ohio defense to keep serve, and I feel comfortable saying they can.
My best bet: Under 54.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Bowling Green vs Ohio Spread Analysis
I’m leaning heavily for Ohio, but that’s not a spread I want to bet on pre-game with the uncertainties surrounding Rourke making it enough to stay away. In a vacuum, I believe Ohio is a better team and should win this game, but I expect much better betting opportunities on this game once it goes live.
The spread opened at Ohio -6.5. Since then, we’ve seen some minimal movement, but Ohio has climbed to a flat -7 in places. A look at our Covers Consensus page reveals that Ohio is attracted to about 60% of the bets.
The Bobcats have been as close to as safe a bet as you’ll find in college football this season, covering seven straight games. Situationally, you must like them here. They are one of the hottest teams in college football and are one win away from winning the MAC East.
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Bowling Green vs Ohio Over/Under Analysis
We’re riding the Under here and following the cutting edge action. This total opened at 56.5 and saw strong buying on the Under, dropping it to where it is now. Rourke’s status makes it tricky, but given what we expect, we’d gladly take 54.5. As I said at the outset, both of these defenses have improved as the season progressed – today it looks like the culmination of that improvement.
There are strong tendencies for both of these teams towards the Over. It went like this in five consecutive away games for Bowling Green and six consecutive games vs. a team with a winning record for Ohio.
However, those trends changed when the two teams traveled to Ohio, with four of their last five meetings in Athens going under. This looks like the point for some market correction for many reasons.
Bowling Green vs Ohio betting trend to know
The U.S. is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Ohio. Check out more NCAA betting trends on Bowling Green vs. Ohio.
About the game Bowling Green vs Ohio
|Position:||Peden Stadium, Athens, Ohio|
|Date:||Tuesday 22 November 2022|
|kick off:||7:00 PM ET|
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