4 best bets for Wednesday, including Timberwolves vs. Pacer, Clipper vs. Warriors (November 23)

Wednesdays are always busy for the NBA, but tonight’s roster takes on even more significance with no games scheduled for Thanksgiving.

With 12 games scheduled and two nationally televised games anchoring tonight’s action: Mavericks vs. Celtics (7:30 PM ET) and Clippers vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET) — our crew has put together four bets for tonight’s games.

Check out their betting analysis and top bets for Wednesday night below.

NBA odds and picks

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

Choose
Timberwolves-1.5
Reserve
FanDuel
Tipoff
7:00 PM ET
TV
NBA League Passes

Chris Baker: The Indiana Pacers are being overrated here after going on five game winning streaks against terrible teams. Look at the teams they’ve played with, you see they all rank in the bottom five in Adjusted Net Ratings aside from the Toronto Raptors, who were missing Pascal Siakam and Fred Vanvleet. It should also be mentioned that two of the five victories came against the Orlando Magic who were missing top scorer Paolo Banchero.

This team is generally overrated right now, but I think the Timberwolves also have some matchup advantages they can take advantage of. The Timberwolves should be able to have success against this porous Indiana defense.

Indiana has been playing well of late, but it’s been mostly based on their offense. Their defense still ranks 24 in defensively adjusted rating despite playing the second easiest schedule of opposing offenses for dunks and threes. They have been particularly bad at defending the rim as they are allowing the sixth highest rim rate in the NBA.

That’s a recipe for disaster against a big-time Minnesota offense that loves to attack the rim, ranking sixth in the rim rate. Another plus for Wolves is their transition defense. Minnesota’s defense ranks ninth in transition speed and that’s huge when facing this Indiana offense who ranks third in transition frequency.

This Indiana team wants to play fast, but when forced to play at halfback, they drop from eighth in points per 100 to 15th. So they’re essentially an average midfielder and I expect their offense to struggle against a Minnesota defense that ranks second in defensive half while allowing just 92 points per 100 possessions.

Rely on the Timberwolves to keep their four-game hitting streak going into Thanksgiving Eve.


» Back to index «


Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Indiana Pacers

Choose
Stimulators +2
Reserve
DraftKings

Austin Wang: I’m on the other side of this meeting. The Pacers continue their strong start to the season with a 9-6 record and 10-5 ATS after being projected as one of the worst teams in the league.

The Pacers are seventh in Offensive Rating, and they raised it even more recently, finishing fifth in their last five games. Their offense was a well oiled machine with third year Tyrese Haliburton running the show. Despite facing an easy schedule as Chris noted (Magic twice, injury-riddled Rockets, Hornets and Raptors), I think they match up well against the Wolves.

The Pacers shoot well from 3-point range: fourth in 3-point percentage (45.7% of total field goal attempts) and 10th in 3-point percentage (37.2%). Conversely, the Timberwolves are 23rd in opponent 3-pointers allowed (36.6%). With the addition of Rudy Gobert, the paint is crowded with bigs and the perimeter defense suffers.

Also, the Pacers are excellent at coming into transition with Haliburton in the lead. They are second in fast break points (17.4) while Wolves are 21 in fast break points allowed. Wolves are adept at scoring on the pitch, but the presence of Myles Turner has led them to be world no. 1 in the opponent’s points in the permitted paint.

This Wolves squad has underperformed this season as they adjust to life with Gobert, but are finding their footing with a four-game winning streak. They may have figured it out, but I see a lot of advantages in favor of the Pacers.

As of 2016, the home teams on Thanksgiving Eve are 38-21-1 ATS (64.4%), according to Killer Sports’ SDQL. I’m supporting the Pacers here as home underdogs.


» Back to index «


Chicago Bulls versus Milwaukee Bucks

Choose
Dollars-6.5
Reserve
FanDuel
Tipoff
8:00 PM ET
TV
NBA League Passes

Core Parsons: Betting on home favorites hasn’t been lucrative for NBA bettors so far this season: 80-85-3 ATS (48%). The Bucks, however, stood out as favorites at home. On the season the Bucks are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home, the fourth-most profitable team against home spread in the NBA, according to Bet Labs.

FanDuel opened this game with the Bulls as a 7.5-point favorite, but that number was down by one point overnight. The total opened at 218 and has since staked as high as 223. The over moneyed in three of the Bucks’ last 4 games.

The Bucks are on the chalky side tonight, but the truth is they are simply better than the Bulls and should cover this number without a problem.


» Back to index «


Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors

Choose
Andrew Wiggins, under 2.5 assists (-145)
Reserve
BetPoints
Tipoff
10 PM ET
TV
ESPN

Tyler Schmidt: For the second time this season, the Warriors rested nearly every starter on the road to the Pelicans. They lost both games, but their last loss was by 45 runs as they still have a sub-.500 record at 8-10. With everyone behind, the Warriors are near double-digit home favorites against the Clippers.

After landing a big contract just before the season began, Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.4 points per game, shooting a career-best 49.3% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc . He’s also averaging 5.6 rebounds per game. Wiggins even upped his steals.

The main area Wiggins continues to struggle in is catching assists. He is averaging 2.1 assists per game and hasn’t produced three or more assists in seven straight games. This prop assist on FanDuel looks like a great bet as our model has Wiggins projected for 1.4 assists, which is well below the prop line.

The Clippers are playing without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but still have the second-highest defensive rating in the league (106.8), going into tonight’s games. They allow just 105.8 points and 22.8 assists per game, which both rank in the top five defensively. Over his last seven games, Wiggins is averaging 4.7 potential assists, which ranks fifth among the Warriors.


» Back to index «


Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: