The Thanksgiving list is here. I have good food and football on hand for the day, but I couldn’t help myself and set up some daily fantasy lineups. Plus, we all still have seasonal squads to consider. So, I’ve taken a different approach this week. On Thursday, I have the main storylines and points of interest for each game.
I’m also going to eliminate a couple of players I’m targeting based on matchups. Regardless, I wish you all a peaceful and happy holiday. Now, let’s get into the action.
Bills at Lions – So are you saying there is a chance?
Well, no, not really.
Hindsight is 20/20, I can see how a team with Justin Jefferson And Dalvin Cook he would beat the Bills. it took some magicbut I imagined a competitive game.
I can’t see the same for this contest. But if I had a shred of hope for the Lions, it would be in my concern about the Bills’ passing game:
Buffalo got off to a slow start in Week 11, but eventually outpaced Cleveland. However, Josh AllenThe UCL injury stays in my mind. His touchdown throw at Stephen Diggs it took a little too much strength to get there. Of course, it’s just a play and Allen was probably off balance. But his 27 attempts (second fewest of the season) were another sign that things had changed for the Bills’ offense.
In the season, Allen is second in overshoot rate than expected (PRO). Still, he had fewer dropbacks and only two runs planned against the Browns. Devin single he hit a season-high in rushing attempts. I, along with most of Western New York, will be monitoring the Bills’ game plan as it unfolds against Detroit. All miss the guardian for their walkthrough on Tuesdaybut it’s unclear if he’ll play without it on Thanksgiving.
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If the elbow is still a problem, Dawson Knox it’s a great option for the Thursday list. Allen’s average depth of goal (aDOT) of 8.3 hadn’t been this low since Week 6. As a result, Knox led the team in 28.0 percent goal per run (TPRR). Diggs and Gabriel Davis they were still first in either targets or altitude, so they’ll be fine.
The Jets and Vikings (to some extent) could fall back on their defense to keep Buffalo’s guns at bay. Detroit doesn’t have the same luxury. They’ve allowed quarterbacks a top-five finish in three of their last four games. Unless Allen falters (he’s regressed on halfback shooting), we’ll have to see what the Lions offense can do to keep up. Detroit has a chance to make some noise, as the Bills’ defense hasn’t been the same as it was early in the season.
Amun-Ra St Brown is already in your starting lineup. If you want, you can throw a dart Caliph Raymondtarget share of 17.0%. But I will defend it D’Andre Swift.
As of Week 6, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most rushes of 10 yards or more. Swift still can go out into the open fieldbut his decision making in real time it was a problem. So, it’s not an injury to keep him in rotation with Justin Jackson And Jamal Williams dancing in the end zone. He needs to improve his skills as a rusher. However, with the Bills ranked 18th in rushing hit percentage, Detroit should look for their more explosive option in the rushing game to keep their offense on track.
The short-handed Giants head south to take on the Cowboys
Fantasy analysts can set aside Prescott roofSuccess after returning from injury. He was a top-12 option but needed the score rushed to clinch Week 8. But, to football nerds, Prescott played with the lights out.
Ted provides an excellent breakdown of Tony PollarThe touchdown catch against Minnesota. It’s a play, but it underscores how efficient Prescott was. And his ability to perform is part of the reason we haven’t seen him light up the boxscore:
You’re good if you see your quarterback’s name next to it Patrick Mahomes or Yours Tagovailoa. And Prescott is up there with the best of them. He is in the top five in the EPA for play and CPOE, while Dallas operates a balanced run-pass offense (-2% PROE). But Dak doesn’t have an alien arm like Mahomes or the Tagovailoa duo. I’ll give Dallas OC Kellen Moore credit, as he made things easier for his QB.
The Cowboys are sixth in game action percentage as of Week 7. And it should come as no surprise to see Prescott sixth in EPA by attempt using game action. As in his passage to Pollard above, his combination of pinpoint accuracy and touch can transform an efficient concept into an explosive result.
Anyway, Cee Dee Lamb he’s still the player to target across all formats. The inside receivers cut the Giants defense 71 yards per game. St. Brown just tagged them with a stat of 7-76-0 on eight targets Sunday. Tyler Locket (8-63-1) e Christian Kirk (10-96-0) has published similar results in the previous weeks.
The matchup lends itself to a boom week for Lamb, but the game environment could eventually keep his output in check.
My eyes will be on how much of the passing game we’ll actually see. The Cowboys are 9.5 point favorites and we know it Jerry Jones’s feelings towards Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard’s 21 touches on Sunday may have been a changing of the guard. However, we saw more racing than passing attempts in a resounding victory. So, Prescott’s efficiency may be the only bottom line for the air attack unless the Giants somehow get a fight.
But I don’t even know who will send New York to fight.
New York’s march to the playoffs now rests on the shoulders of Darius Slayton, Richie JamesAnd … Kenny Golladay. Yes, I know. The team goes like Saquon Barkley it goes. But Brian Daboll can’t build the entire plane with Barkley-designed attempts and… Daniel Jones.
Green Bay, however, has provided them with a possible design that could work.
Aaron Rogers he achieved a season-high game action rate against Dallas. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones he passed Micah Parsons and the rest of the defense for 138 yards and a touchdown. Barkley is 30th in hitting percentage on the season, while Jones is third. Simply put, Barkley is a home run. But the Giants will need all the firepower they can get unless Daniel Jones can connect with his receivers.
Slayton is the best of the pass catching options. At least it’s healthybut his 2.48 YPRR is comparable to most WR1s. Jones targeted Slayton on 44.4% of his routes from the slot. With Wan’Dale Robinson finished for the season, Slayton becomes the team’s leading receiver against the Cowboys’ secondary.
Primetime playoff implications as Vikings host Patriots
No, I don’t think Vikings are imposters. Like most things, the answer is somewhere in between. But the Cowboys definitely gave us something to talk about after Sunday:
Thursday’s biggest story is whether the Vikings can rewrite the narrative coming out of their Week 11 beating. Dallas lobbied Kirk cousins on 60.0% of its dropbacks.
No, not 6.0% – 60%. More than half.
Cousins caught a career-high seven sacks with just 105 passing yards. And now he faces Bill Belichick in prime time. But when it comes to fraudulent teams, Minnesota isn’t the only one in the conversation.
New England’s defense has allowed the lowest rate of first downs or touchdowns this season. Belichick has done it again: He somehow created a juggernaut defense capable of trailing their offense into the playoff picture.
But let’s rewind a bit.
In two of the last three weeks they have played in shifts Zach Wilson, who has just been benched. Torn between holding the Jets to a 28.6% third down conversion rate, they had Frank Reich sacked after limiting the Colts to 121 yards of total offense. It was a much needed run for the Patriots. However, there were some concerns ahead.
New England was 32nd in rushing percentage allowed during Week 7. We watched Justin Fields rise in the early evening against the patriots. While cousins dance more off the court than onthe Vikings rushing attack can help take the pressure off their quarterback.
Dalvin Cook he is fourth in explosive racing via PFF. He is also 21st in fast hit rate. While Minnesota is in the top 10 in PROE, their approach to defending New England is a point of interest to me. Chicago lost 206 rushing yards to the Patriots and the Green Bay duo weren’t far behind at 183.
Team waypoints, from Justin Jefferson to TJ Hockenson, will be in every lineup. But the running game will be the critical factor in how we view the Vikings as we approach the playoffs.
Conversely, the Patriots’ passing attack has value in DFS formats. I know you will see MacJones at the bottom of the same chart I showed you on Dak. And Jones’ 5.4 aerial yards per attempt is greater than solo Matthew RyanS. So, I’ll clarify by pointing out one option that flies under the radar.
From week 6, Jonna Smith he was third in goals with a YPRR of 2.39. Henry the hunter has the largest route participation (124 routes out of 179 dropbacks), but Smith’s TPRR of 28.1% is more than double that of Henry’s (11.3%). Smith is also one goal down in the red zone.
Jacob Mayer it is and should be the popular game. However, Smith offers a unique access to a passing game against the 22nd ranked defense in schedule-adapted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.